-18.7
ELEVATED
Current (1 hour)
CrisisPeace
1 Hour
-18.7ELEVATED
↑-2.3escalating
24 Hours
-14.2ELEVATED
↑-4.5escalating
72 Hours
-6.8NEUTRAL
↑-11.9escalating
Index History (72h)
73 data pointsLatest: -18.7
62 markets
Z-score lookback: 72h
Aggregation: entropy weighted
Demo Data
Sub-Indices
Conflict Probability40%
-23.4ELEVATED
Are markets pricing crisis?
Flow Aggression20%
-11.8ELEVATED
Aggressive buyers targeting crisis?
Whale Conviction20%
-20.1ELEVATED
Smart money buying crisis or peace?
Book Pressure20%
-5.2NEUTRAL
Order books skewed toward crisis?
Regional Decomposition
Iran / US
-41.2CRISIS
14 markets$2.8M
Israel / Middle East
-32.8CRISIS
18 markets$4.1M
Ukraine / Russia
-15.6ELEVATED
12 markets$1.9M
Energy
-8.9NEUTRAL
8 markets$1.2M
China / Asia
+4.2NEUTRAL
10 markets$890K
Top Movers
| Market | Polarity | Prob | Volume 24h | Entropy | Buy Ratio | Book Imbal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran and Israel engage in direct military conflict in 2026? | crisis | 38.0% | $1.4M | 0.042 | 0.680 | -0.234 |
| Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza before July 2026? | peace | 24.0% | $980K | 0.038 | 0.420 | -0.189 |
| Will Russia launch a major offensive in Ukraine in Q2 2026? | crisis | 31.0% | $870K | 0.035 | 0.610 | -0.156 |
| Will the US impose new sanctions on Iran in 2026? | crisis | 72.0% | $640K | 0.031 | 0.710 | -0.098 |
| Will Brent crude oil exceed $100/barrel in 2026? | crisis | 29.0% | $1.2M | 0.029 | 0.580 | -0.112 |
| Will China impose a blockade on Taiwan in 2026? | crisis | 6.0% | $520K | 0.027 | 0.530 | -0.045 |
| Will there be a Ukraine peace deal before 2027? | peace | 18.0% | $760K | 0.025 | 0.390 | -0.134 |
| Will Hezbollah and Israel reach a permanent ceasefire in 2026? | peace | 32.0% | $450K | 0.023 | 0.440 | -0.078 |
| Will there be a military confrontation in the South China Sea in 2026? | crisis | 12.0% | $380K | 0.020 | 0.560 | -0.067 |
| Will OPEC+ cut production further in 2026? | crisis | 45.0% | $290K | 0.018 | 0.620 | -0.034 |
Signal Composition
| Signal | Description | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| price_sentiment | Market probability positioning on crisis spectrum | 20% |
| sentiment_momentum | Rate of change in price sentiment (1h window) | 10% |
| net_flow | Buy vs sell volume pressure across markets | 15% |
| whale_flow | Large trader ($10K+) directional conviction | 10% |
| taker_buy_ratio | Aggressive buying intensity | 10% |
| book_imbalance | Order book bid/ask depth asymmetry | 10% |
| spread | Liquidity stress indicator | 5% |
| volume_trend | Trading activity surge or decline | 10% |
| liquidity_trend | Market maker commitment changes | 10% |
Market Explorer (62 markets)
| Market | Polarity | Prob | Crisis ▼ | Vol 24h | Net Flow | Whale | TBR | Imbal. | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Saudi-Iran diplomatic normalization hold through 2026? | 48.0% | +11.2 | $310K | $42K | $26K | 0.43 | 0.056 | 0.0170 | |
| Will the Abraham Accords expand to include Saudi Arabia? | 14.0% | +8.9 | $480K | $52K | $34K | 0.45 | 0.045 | 0.0180 | |
| Will the Black Sea shipping corridor remain open through 2026? | 38.0% | +7.8 | $280K | $32K | $19K | 0.44 | 0.038 | 0.0220 | |
| Will the US and China reach a trade deal in 2026? | 22.0% | +6.7 | $560K | $45K | $28K | 0.48 | 0.034 | 0.0160 | |
| Will there be a successful peace summit for Ukraine in 2026? | 12.0% | +5.6 | $420K | $28K | $17K | 0.44 | 0.028 | 0.0210 | |
| Will there be a nuclear deal with Iran in 2026? | 7.0% | +4.5 | $390K | $18K | $11K | 0.43 | 0.023 | 0.0270 | |
| Will US withdraw troops from Middle East bases in 2026? | 9.0% | +3.4 | $340K | $12K | $7K | 0.46 | 0.015 | 0.0250 | |
| Will there be a regime change in Iran in 2026? | 5.0% | +2.3 | $230K | $8K | $5K | 0.46 | 0.012 | 0.0420 | |
| Will there be a new arms control agreement between US and Russia? | 6.0% | +2.3 | $270K | $9K | $5K | 0.47 | 0.010 | 0.0300 | |
| Will there be a diplomatic resolution to the Korean Peninsula tensions? | 8.0% | +1.2 | $210K | $6K | $4K | 0.47 | 0.008 | 0.0360 | |
| Will the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) be revived in 2026? | 4.0% | +1.2 | $350K | $7K | $4K | 0.47 | 0.008 | 0.0280 | |
| Will the UN Security Council pass a new resolution on Ukraine? | 11.0% | -2.3 | $180K | $4K | $2K | 0.48 | 0.005 | 0.0390 | |
| Will Japan increase defense budget to 2%+ of GDP in 2026? | 71.0% | -3.4 | $220K | $7K | $4K | 0.55 | -0.008 | 0.0150 | |
| Will there be a coup in a NATO member state? | 3.0% | -3.4 | $190K | $5K | $3K | 0.50 | -0.009 | 0.0420 | |
| Will the Arctic see military confrontation in 2026? | 5.0% | -4.5 | $120K | $6K | $3K | 0.51 | -0.012 | 0.0450 | |
| Will global nuclear arsenal modernization accelerate? | 74.0% | -4.5 | $170K | $8K | $4K | 0.56 | -0.012 | 0.0145 | |
| Will global military AI deployment accelerate in 2026? | 58.0% | -5.6 | $200K | $10K | $6K | 0.56 | -0.018 | 0.0190 | |
| Will there be a water conflict in the Nile Basin? | 14.0% | -5.6 | $120K | $7K | $4K | 0.52 | -0.018 | 0.0430 | |
| Will Venezuela-Guyana border tensions escalate in 2026? | 10.0% | -6.7 | $140K | $8K | $5K | 0.52 | -0.019 | 0.0400 | |
| Will global defense spending increase by >5% in 2026? | 67.0% | -7.8 | $280K | $14K | $8K | 0.60 | -0.018 | 0.0140 | |
| Will Libya civil war intensify in 2026? | 22.0% | -7.8 | $150K | $11K | $7K | 0.54 | -0.025 | 0.0380 | |
| Will Myanmar civil war see international intervention? | 11.0% | -7.8 | $140K | $9K | $5K | 0.53 | -0.021 | 0.0400 | |
| Will there be a Balkan security crisis in 2026? | 9.0% | -7.8 | $150K | $10K | $6K | 0.52 | -0.023 | 0.0360 | |
| Will NATO expand further in 2026? | 34.0% | -8.9 | $320K | $15K | $9K | 0.51 | -0.023 | 0.0230 | |
| Will Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict resume in 2026? | 13.0% | -8.9 | $130K | $10K | $6K | 0.53 | -0.024 | 0.0410 | |
| Will there be a refugee crisis exceeding 2015 levels? | 20.0% | -9.8 | $180K | $14K | $8K | 0.53 | -0.028 | 0.0340 | |
| Will Kosovo-Serbia tensions lead to military action in 2026? | 7.0% | -9.8 | $170K | $13K | $8K | 0.53 | -0.028 | 0.0350 | |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimea by end of 2026? | 3.0% | -11.2 | $310K | $12K | $8K | 0.41 | -0.089 | 0.0380 | |
| Will Sudan's civil war see foreign military intervention in 2026? | 26.0% | -11.2 | $160K | $15K | $9K | 0.54 | -0.034 | 0.0370 | |
| Will Pakistan political crisis lead to military intervention? | 16.0% | -11.2 | $200K | $16K | $10K | 0.54 | -0.032 | 0.0330 | |
| Will drone warfare escalate significantly in 2026? | 63.0% | -11.2 | $230K | $18K | $11K | 0.58 | -0.034 | 0.0175 | |
| Will the Philippines confront China militarily over South China Sea? | 8.0% | -12.3 | $250K | $19K | $12K | 0.54 | -0.038 | 0.0310 | |
| Will there be a NATO-Russia direct confrontation in 2026? | 4.0% | -13.4 | $420K | $19K | $12K | 0.52 | -0.028 | 0.0350 | |
| Will Turkey intervene militarily in northern Syria in 2026? | 23.0% | -13.4 | $240K | $21K | $13K | 0.56 | -0.042 | 0.0300 | |
| Will global food prices hit new record highs in 2026? | 18.0% | -13.4 | $260K | $22K | $14K | 0.56 | -0.042 | 0.0230 | |
| Will India-Pakistan tensions escalate to military conflict in 2026? | 9.0% | -14.5 | $270K | $18K | $11K | 0.54 | -0.038 | 0.0320 | |
| Will OPEC+ cut production further in 2026? | 45.0% | -15.6 | $290K | $24K | $15K | 0.62 | -0.034 | 0.0170 | |
| Will Syria see renewed large-scale conflict in 2026? | 17.0% | -15.6 | $190K | $22K | $14K | 0.55 | -0.045 | 0.0340 | |
| Will there be a major terrorist attack in Europe in 2026? | 15.0% | -15.6 | $290K | $25K | $15K | 0.56 | -0.048 | 0.0280 | |
| Will natural gas prices in Europe exceed 2022 highs? | 11.0% | -16.7 | $410K | $34K | $21K | 0.55 | -0.056 | 0.0200 | |
| Will there be a major maritime incident in the Taiwan Strait? | 9.0% | -16.7 | $310K | $28K | $17K | 0.55 | -0.056 | 0.0290 | |
| Will there be a military confrontation in the South China Sea in 2026? | 12.0% | -17.8 | $380K | $31K | $19K | 0.56 | -0.067 | 0.0310 | |
| Will China conduct military exercises around Taiwan in H1 2026? | 54.0% | -17.8 | $430K | $38K | $23K | 0.57 | -0.056 | 0.0165 | |
| Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test in 2026? | 15.0% | -18.9 | $340K | $28K | $18K | 0.57 | -0.056 | 0.0290 | |
| Will gold prices exceed $3000/oz in 2026? | 42.0% | -18.9 | $510K | $56K | $35K | 0.59 | -0.067 | 0.0130 | |
| Will Hezbollah and Israel reach a permanent ceasefire in 2026? | 32.0% | -19.8 | $450K | $56K | $34K | 0.44 | -0.078 | 0.0250 | |
| Will there be a major cyberattack on critical infrastructure in 2026? | 28.0% | -20.1 | $360K | $45K | $28K | 0.58 | -0.078 | 0.0260 | |
| Will the EU impose energy sanctions on Russia in 2026? | 56.0% | -22.3 | $480K | $67K | $42K | 0.59 | -0.078 | 0.0155 | |
| Will China impose a blockade on Taiwan in 2026? | 6.0% | -23.4 | $520K | $42K | $28K | 0.53 | -0.045 | 0.0280 | |
| Will there be a grain export disruption from Ukraine in 2026? | 41.0% | -24.5 | $350K | $56K | $34K | 0.59 | -0.089 | 0.0185 | |
| Will Brent crude oil exceed $100/barrel in 2026? | 29.0% | -26.7 | $1.2M | $95K | $62K | 0.58 | -0.112 | 0.0120 | |
| Will there be a major shipping disruption in the Suez Canal? | 25.0% | -26.7 | $460K | $78K | $48K | 0.60 | -0.112 | 0.0195 | |
| Will the US impose new sanctions on Iran in 2026? | 72.0% | -29.8 | $640K | $120K | $78K | 0.71 | -0.098 | 0.0150 | |
| Will there be a Ukraine peace deal before 2027? | 18.0% | -31.2 | $760K | $88K | $56K | 0.39 | -0.134 | 0.0210 | |
| Will Yemen Houthis resume Red Sea shipping attacks in 2026? | 62.0% | -33.4 | $540K | $112K | $67K | 0.63 | -0.145 | 0.0175 | |
| Will Russia launch a major offensive in Ukraine in Q2 2026? | 31.0% | -37.8 | $870K | $180K | $95K | 0.61 | -0.156 | 0.0195 | |
| Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza before July 2026? | 24.0% | -38.9 | $980K | $210K | $120K | 0.42 | -0.189 | 0.0220 | |
| Will there be a US-Iran direct military engagement in 2026? | 14.0% | -40.1 | $720K | $178K | $98K | 0.65 | -0.187 | 0.0210 | |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026? | 8.0% | -44.5 | $680K | $156K | $89K | 0.64 | -0.198 | 0.0240 | |
| Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons-grade (90%+) in 2026? | 19.0% | -45.6 | $580K | $198K | $112K | 0.67 | -0.201 | 0.0220 | |
| Will Israel strike Iranian nuclear facilities in 2026? | 21.0% | -47.8 | $890K | $245K | $134K | 0.66 | -0.212 | 0.0190 | |
| Will Iran and Israel engage in direct military conflict in 2026? | 38.0% | -51.2 | $1.4M | $340K | $180K | 0.68 | -0.234 | 0.0180 |